The State of the Saudi economy

This is the latest edition of the monthly Chartbook from Jadwa Investment, which we hope provides you with a useful update on the state of the Saudi economy.

Key observations from the report are as follows:

• Global Economy: May PMI data for China indicates manufacturing sector weakness. The services sector may be faring better, but construction remains under pressure. Meanwhile in the US, bond yields have drifted up amid fiscal concerns as the Trump administration pursues an expansionary budget. The US dollar drifted lower amid negative sentiment.
• Saudi Real Economy: The May non-oil PMI edged up from April, due to increased new orders reflecting solid demand, while the survey indicated further growth in employment. Domestic cement sales rose by 43 percent year-on-year in April, and by 21 percent month-on-month, likely driven by seasonal trends. Meanwhile, latest available data show non-oil exports increased by 10.7 percent year-on-year in March.
• Consumer Spending: Total consumer spending saw a marginal rise in April, up by 0.7 percent year-on-year, but declined by 23 percent month-on-month, primarily due to seasonal trends. The annual growth was largely driven by a 57 percent increase in e-commerce transactions, while both POS transactions and cash withdrawals declined.
• SAMA Foreign Reserve Assets: SAMA’s FX reserves declined in April, down by almost $15 billion, to reach $439.3 billion. The monthly decrease primarily resulted from a decline in bank deposits, down by $18 billion, while foreign securities increased by $2.7 billion.
• Money Supply and Bank Deposits: The broad measure of money supply (M3) increased by 9.3 percent year-on-year, with a marginal decline by 0.1 percent month-on-month in April. Total deposits grew by 9.5 percent year-on-year, with both government and private deposits rising by 9 and 10 percent year-on-year, respectively.
• Bank Credit: Credit growth accelerated to 16.5 percent year-on-year in April, continuing to outpace deposit growth. Credit to the private sector maintained its upward trajectory, rising by 15 percent year-on-year, the highest annual rise since August 2022.
• Inflation: Consumer prices in April rose by 2.3 percent year-on-year and 0.3 percent month-on-month. ‘Food and beverages’ recorded a 2.2 percent increase, led by higher prices in ‘vegetables’ at 9.4 percent. Inflation in ‘Housing and utilities’ inched down, with prices up by 6.8 percent.
• Oil-Global: Brent crude traded close to $65pb in May, with some volatility related to OPEC+ production plans for July. Demand has been supported by pauses to some of the Liberation Day tariffs. Demand for transportation fuels, notably for aviation, has been robust. However, the weak May China PMI data and continued tariff risks remain a concern, especially as supply increases more in H2-25.
• Oil-Saudi Arabia: In Q1-25 crude and refined product export revenue fell by 8.5 percent year-on-year, broadly in line with lower prices. Oil export revenue will be lower in Q2 as lower prices outweigh higher export volumes.
• Stock Market: TASI dropped under 11,000 in the last week of May, down 6 percent from 11,672 at end-April. The main macro factor driving investor caution seems to be the subdued oil price and the potential for that to drag on economic activity.

Kind regards,

Jadwa Investment
Research Department

Work:   +966 11 279 1111 Ext. 4475
Email:   insights@jadwa.com

Saudi Vision Annual Report 2024

According to the Vision 2030 Annual Report 2024, Saudi Arabia has made significant strides in its Vision 2030 initiative, achieving and surpassing numerous targets ahead of schedule. Gulf Business

April 27, 2025

·       Vision 2030 aims to reduce the kingdom’s dependence on oil, diversify its economy, and develop public service sectors.

·       The initiative is structured into three five-year phases, each building upon the previous successes.​

·       As of the end of 2024, 85 per cent of the 1,502 active initiatives under Vision 2030 are either completed or on track, with 674 completed and 596 progressing as planned.

·       Additionally, 93 per cent of national programmes and strategy indicators have met, exceeded, or are close to meeting their 2024 interim targets.

·       Eight Vision 2030 targets have been achieved six years ahead of schedule, reported the Saudi Press Agency (SPA).

·       In the tourism sector, the kingdom welcomed over 100 million tourists, surpassing its 2030 target seven years early.

·       The introduction of e-visa programmes, now available to 66 countries, has enhanced accessibility for international visitors. ​

·       Cultural advancements include the registration of eight Saudi sites on the UNESCO World Heritage List and the inscription of 16 cultural elements on UNESCO’s Representative List of Intangible Cultural Heritage.

·       The kingdom also launched its first specialized college of arts at King Saud University.​

·       Economic diversification efforts have led to the Public Investment Fund’s assets under management exceeding SAR3.53tn, more than triple since Vision 2030’s launch.

·       The private sector’s contribution to GDP reached 47 per cent, surpassing the 2024 target. Employment in small and medium-sized enterprises reached 7.86 million, exceeding expectations.​

·       Social reforms have seen women’s labor force participation rise to 36 per cent by the end of 2024, a significant increase from 17 per cent in 2017.

·       The percentage of Saudi women in middle and senior management positions reached 43.8 per cent.

·       The kingdom also achieved its 7 per cent unemployment target.​

·       Healthcare coverage expanded to 96.4 per cent of population centers, moving closer to the 2030 goal of 99.5 per cent. The average life expectancy increased to 78.8 years, nearing the 2030 target of 80 years. Homeownership among Saudi households reached 65.4 per cent, surpassing the 2025 target.​

·       Environmental initiatives under the “sustainable vision” axis include the planting of over 115 million trees and the rehabilitation of more than 118,000 hectares of degraded land.

·       The kingdom also launched its first hydrogen-powered bus and taxi, and established the world’s first solar-powered desalination plant.​

·       In the realm of digital transformation, Saudi Arabia ranks first in the internet users index and second globally in both the digital transformation index for companies and the technology development and application index.

·       The digital transformation of the judicial system saw 98 per cent of litigation sessions conducted electronically, totaling over 2.3 million sessions.​

·       Major projects contributing to these achievements include the Red Sea Project, which has opened several luxury resorts and aims to attract one million visitors annually by 2030.

·       The Sindalah luxury island destination in NEOM was inaugurated in October 2024, and the Soudah Peaks project aims to develop a mountain tourism destination in ‘Asir Province.

Saudi Arabia confirms $500 million commitment to polio eradication effort, WHO says

Reuters
February 24, 2025

Saudi Arabia has reaffirmed its $500 million pledge to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), the World Health Organization said on Monday.

The funds, initially pledged in April 2024, will be disbursed to help end the wild form of polio in Pakistan and Afghanistan and stop outbreaks of variant polio.

Wild polio — a naturally occurring form of the viral disease — is endemic in Pakistan and Afghanistan, which together reported 99 cases last year, according to the WHO. Variant polio is caused by the weakening of the oral polio vaccine.

The GPEI hopes to declare an end to the wild virus and the vaccine-derived variant by 2027 and 2029, respectively, compared with a previous deadline of 2026 for both forms.

The U.S., which has announced its intention to withdraw from the WHO, was previously a major donor to a program to eliminate polio and contributed 17% of its budget during 2024-2025, the WHO data showed.